The confidence of the two major political parties flows from political arithmetic at the booth level. This vote-bank politics is what the two parties believe will push AAP to the fringes of the contest like the BSP in 2008. However, the Congress still sees Mayawati's BSP as having the potential to show up within the dedicated votebank of Jatavs among scheduled castes. The BSP, which had emerged as the "spoiler", ended second and third on many seats in the 2007 municipal polls and in the 2008 assembly polls too.
Senior Congress leaders insist only an anti-Congress wave can displace the party, irrespective of the opponent. They cite the compelling logic of the current assembly constituencies redefined by delimitation before the 2008 assembly polls. The party hopes it will yet again find support from its traditional vote-banks like Muslims and residents of unauthorized colonies and resettlement colonies. In the post-delimitation scenario, a significant number of seats have the Muslim community dispersed in a way that has the potential to affect the turnout. With BJP declaring Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, the Congress is much more sure of getting the Muslim votes.
The Congress leaders, in fact, believe that AAP may prove to be a blessing as it will draw the anti-Congress votes which they assume would have gone to the BJP.
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