The IMD, in its latest forecast, predicted that "the rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 87% of the Long Period Average (LPA)" during the entire monsoon season (June-September).
The rainfall will, however, improve in the second half of the season (August-September) when most part of the country will receive 95% of the LPA rainfall.
Union earth science minister Jitendra Singh said the latest forecast (87% of LPA) was a downgrade revision from the previous forecast of 93% that was given at the onset of the monsoon in June, but it was no where near as bad the farming community had feared.
Ruling out any possibility of drought, Singh said, "There is no scientific evidence to suggest that there is drought. There is no reason to be alarmist about it. Overall, it's not a pessimistic picture. As per the IMD, conditions of drought like situation are reviewed by September 30".
The minister, while releasing the IMD forecast figures, also emphasized that the distribution of rainfall was also expected to be good - a parameter which brings hope for Kharif crops, sowing of which has gradually been improving since July 10.
The downgrade from 93 to 87% of the LPA (with a model error of plus or minus 4) was done due to shortage of rain during June, which was just 43% of the LPA.
"There is 68% probability for the season rainfall over the country as a whole to be deficient (less than 90% of LPA). The probability for below normal rainfall (90-96% of LPA) is 24%," the IMD said in its forecast, indicating that the country is expected to receive "deficient" rainfall, contrary to the earlier prediction that it would be "below normal" monsoon.
The IMD prediction shows that the northwest India is likely to be worst hit this year and is expected to receive 76% of rainfall, while central India is expected to receive 89%, southern peninsula 87% and northeast India is expected to receive 93% of the rainfall with a model error of plus or minus 8%.
Asked about the possibility of drought in deficient rainfall condition, ministry of earth science secretary Shailesh Nayak said it was up to the agriculture ministry to take a call on drought.
Though the agriculture ministry has kept its contingency plan ready, no states have, so far, declared drought in the respective regions.
Under the contingency plan, the Center would provide special assistance package, including higher subsidy on seeds, to areas affected by drought in view of shortfall in monsoon rains. Subsidy on diesel would also be extended in areas where the rainfall has been less than 50%.
Besides, the subsidy on seeds would be increased by 50% in areas where sowing has started but has been affected by shortfall in rain.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/followceleb.cms?alias=monsoon forecast,Indian Meteorological Department,government weather forecaster
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