3-way dead heat in Delhi assembly race, poll says

NEW DELHI: The Delhi assembly elections could end in a dead heat between the BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party, making government formation almost impossible, an opinion poll by a TV channel indicated.

The poll suggests a spectacular debut by AAP with there being hardly any difference between the two national parties and the fledgling AAP, whether in terms of seats or vote shares.

The poll projected a range of 22-28 seats for the BJP in the 70-member assembly, and both Congress and AAP in an identical range of 19-25 seats. In terms of vote share, it predicted 29% for the BJP, 28% for AAP 28% and 27% for Congress.

Given that AAP has repeatedly asserted that there is no question of it joining hands with either BJP or Congress to form government, if this scenario comes true, no party can form the government, since 'others' are predicted to win at best 4 seats. This would mean another poll in Delhi, possibly with the Lok Sabha election.

With successive polls projecting increasing seats and votes for the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP, and more than a month left for polling, the poll will worry both BJP and Congress and make AAP supporters believe that the momentum is in their favour.

The poll, conducted by CSDS for CNN-IBN, also suggested that AAP is particularly strong among younger voters. Among those aged 18 to 22, who would be first time voters, the party is projected to garner a 35% vote share compared to 26% for BJP and 20% for Congress.

In the 23-25 age bracket, AAP's vote share is estimated to be 38%, BJP's at 22% and Congress at 23%. The 26-35 age group is almost evenly split among the three major contenders, while older respondents showed a greater preference for the two national parties, with the BJP slightly ahead in all of them.

In the CM's stakes, Kejriwal led with 25%, followed by Sheila Dikshit with 16%, Vijay Goel with 10% and Harshvardhan with just 2%. However, the survey was carried out between October 16 and 24, when it was not yet clear who would be the BJP's chief ministerial candidate and Goel appeared to be the one leading that race.

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