The assessment in Congress is that Delhi, which is normally considered to be safe in a faceoff with BJP, has run too close for comfort. Internal surveys have kept Congress ahead of BJP by half a dozen seats in both the best and worst scenarios.
The situation is seen as a battle which should go the Congress way but in which the party cannot afford to make any faux pas lest the BJP inches closer.
The safety-first option may force the party to repeat its sitting MLAs since disgruntled aspirants or legislators are notorious for contesting as rebel candidates.
A senior leader summed up the electoral battle thus, "We are ahead but we cannot take any chances. Any miscalculation or false step can put us in trouble."
Congress is banking heavily on Delhi to bail it out in the end-year elections that include Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. The party believes its prospects are good in BJP-ruled Chhattisgarh while it is less than optimistic in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
This has given an exaggerated importance to Delhi way beyond its size or political clout. The state was the saving grace in the winter of 2003 when Congress was routed in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan while victory in the capital boosted the scoreline in December 2008 which demoralized the BJP for the parliamentary polls that followed. No wonder, the party leadership is keeping a close watch on how the story unfolds here.
Insiders said Congress would have take care of rebels and get its candidates right in key constituencies to ensure that it can retain the advantage it enjoys over BJP.
Arvind Kejriwal and Narendra Modi have emerged as twin factors who can make or mar equations while special watch is on the dalit and Muslim constituencies. The party is fairly confident dalits and Muslims would stick to the Congress banner while Kejriwal would dent the middle-classes seething over inflation and corruption.
While Aam Aadmi Party appears to be helping by tapping voters who otherwise would drift to BJP, it is felt Modi can sway middle-class voters towards BJP, thus neutralizing the effect of Kejriwal's outfit.
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