Going by the December election results, AAP looks strong as it won seven of the ten assembly seats here, however its middle-class support has eroded somewhat since then. BJP got the remaining three seats while Congress drew a blank. A surprise polling surge among the youth and the middle- and upper-middle classes caused the upset—every Congress MLA, including former CM Sheila Dikshit, was booted out—and is expected to define the parliamentary poll outcome as well.
At its core, the constituency has a large population of government employees residing in colonies at Lodhi Road, Gole Market, Andrews Ganj, RK Puram, Moti Bagh and Sarojini Nagar. There are aspirational neighbourhoods like Jor Bagh, Golf Links and Chanakyapuri, and other upscale colonies like Greater Kailash I&II, Defence Colony, Safdarjung Enclave and Vasant Vihar.
For long, the constituency was a BJP stronghold, represented by former PM Atal Behari Vajpayee (1977-1984), and party stalwarts L K Advani (1989-1992) and Jagmohan (1996 to 2004). Congress broke in during 1984-89 (K C pant) and 1992-96 (Rajesh Khanna), and has held the seat twice since 2004.
BJP is hoping the 'Modi wave' will sweep the seat its way again. The party's campaign will target AAP for failing to fulfill poll promises, and Congress on corruption, inflation and policy paralysis at the Centre. About the 'AAP factor', Lekhi said, "AAP ran its campaign in the Delhi assembly election saying, 'Kejriwal for CM, Modi for PM'. Now it is time to vote for Modi as PM".
Shaken by the December debacle, Congress will focus its campaign on Maken's clean image. The two-time MP plans to highlight all the development work and policy changes effected during his tenure as minister for sports, urban development, and housing and poverty alleviation. "AAP's 49-day government in Delhi has disillusioned the middle class and Modi is no major threat. BJP fought Delhi polls on the 'Modi wave' yet failed to get a majority," he said.
AAP is promising voters "systemic change". Debutant contestant Ashish Khetan said his party's 49 days in office showed people a different way of governance. "The real challenge for us is to counter the big money being pumped into propaganda by BJP and Congress. We are banking on door-to-door campaigns and road shows."
In areas like Karol Bagh, Rajinder Nagar, Patel Nagar, Malviya Nagar, Kalkaji and Lajpat Nagar that have a large number of people displaced by the Partition, inflation and corruption are the main poll issues. While the constituency is largely cosmopolitan, caste and class are likely to sway voters in the urban villages of Shahpur Jat, Chirag Dilli, Naraina, Munirka, Kotla Mubarakpur, Zamrudpur, Garhi and Pilanji Gaon. Congress is hoping to reap political dividend from giving Jats minority status. However, in the December polls, even the villages broke out of the caste stereotype.
The constituency also has several slums with the potential to swing the outcome in a contest where traditional politics is being put to the test by an electorate seeking change.
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